Thursday, December 06, 2007

Final Political Predictions Before Primaries

Back in August, I had this to say about the 2008 Presidential Election.
And the following is a quick summary of my August predictions:
Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton (VP: Wesley Clark or Jim Webb)
Republican Nominee: Fred Thompson (VP: Mike Huckabee or Mark Sanford)

Now it is December 6 and only 28 days until the beginning of the presidential primary season. Everything is the same with my August predictions with one major exception: I now predict that Mike Huckabee will get the Republican nomination. As I predicted in August, Huckabee is the dark horse for the Republican presidential nomination. He is now second in Iowa and might very well win that state and the nomination. In the end, Huckabee is the "ideal" candidate for the Republicans because he's young, a counter to Clinton in Arkansas, and a member of the religious right. However, Huckabee must turn early victories into financial windfalls or he will not make it very far on Super Tuesday (February 5, 2007). Nonetheless, I believe he is positioned to steal the political fortunes of Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain.

In August, the momentum was certainly with Thompson, but he has since squandered a chance to obtain the nomination. I believe his late entry, age, and lack of enthusiasm have contributed to his decline. Other major factors are the staying power of Romney and the rising power of Mike Huckabee. Romney has assembled a solid foundation in the early states which has fended off potential challengers with one exception. Huckabee, with the religious right starting to take notice, is beginning to challenge Romney. Nonetheless, I still believe Romney, Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain will do well enough to make it to the end of February, but Huckabee's rising political status and surprise victories will ultimately put Thompson and the others out of contention.

Let me reiterate that I do not believe Romney or Giuliani will get the Republican nomination because one is in the "wrong" religion (Mormonism) and the other "isn't religious enough." This is by no means their fault. It is the fault of the political party they support and aspire to lead. Unfortunately, the Republican Party is becoming more exclusive. President George W. Bush is the new precedent for future Republican nominees. Not only did he openly seek and accept the support of the religious right (nothing new), but he often professed private matters of faith and how they personally guided his decisions as the leader of a secular government. Under Bush, the line between Church and State has certainly gotten smaller, and he was not ashamed to throw the religious right red meat when he or the party needed their support.

As a result, the religious right will compare any future nominee to the standard Bush has set. The thought of President Romney or Giuliani scares many people, but I just don't see the U.S. or world falling apart if they win. But I just don't think they will get the nomination in a party that is becoming increasingly theocratic (in the Christian sense). Is it any wonder that Huckabee is gaining steam? If this trend continues I suspect the Republican Party will eventually split. Until then, those who proclaim blind allegiance to the religious right have a distinct advantage when it comes to getting the Republican nomination.

So my final prediction for the presidential primaries is this:
Democrats: Hillary Clinton (VP: Wesley Clark or Jim Webb)
Republicans: Mike Huckabee (VP: Mark Sanford)

As I mentioned in August, there is one caveat. If the U.S. is attacked again or war breaks out with Iran, the Republican nomination is likely to go to McCain, Giuliani, or Thompson. That is a big IF, but it would certainly change the dynamics of the race for both Republicans and Democrats.

I will now give my preferences for president as they are different from my projections. I seriously doubt I will vote for Huckabee or Clinton if they are the nominees. The only way I will consider voting for Clinton is if she offers the vice-presidency to Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, or Gravel. This is unlikely to happen even for Obama or Edwards. Therefore, I am left with the following:
Wishful-thinking choices for president: Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd or Ralph Nader
Realistic choices for president: Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani seems like an odd pick, but he is similar to the Democrats on some issues (especially social ones). And he certainly appears more compassionate, level-headed, and intelligent than President Bush or any of the other Republican candidates. But one major negative for me is that he continues to support the war in Iraq. This I can not accept.

Unfortunately, the only way I see Obama getting the Democratic nomination is if Edwards drops out early and throws his support to him. I doubt this will happen. Even if it did, it would still be very difficult to stop Clinton. I will likely vote for Nader, Michael Bloomberg (if they run), or some other third party candidate if Clinton gets the nomination. Until that officially happens, there's always the audacity of hope...

For the record, I will not contribute financial support to any candidate until the primaries are over and the ballots are set. Unfortunately, my vote on May 13, 2008 will be a moot point since the nomination will be wrapped up well before then. No wonder voters feel disenfranchised. The primaries are in serious need of reform. One suggestion is having the federal government divide the states into regions which vote first (like Iowa and New Hampshire) on a rotating basis. Another idea is having all states vote at once. I prefer the former because it allows candidates a chance to hone their political skills and more importantly, empowers voters (from different areas) with the opportunity to shape the political process and discourse.