On May 10, I posted this about possible Vice Presidents. Since then, I have made a few small changes. These are my final predictions.
Republicans (McCain)
1. Mitt Romney because he helps McCain keep Colorado and Nevada Republican, and he puts Minnesota, Michigan, and Massachusetts in play. Based on this alone, McCain would be silly not to offer the vice presidency to him. Hopefully, some Republicans can get over his Mormonism.
2. Mike Huckabee because McCain still has problems with the Religious Right. Additionally, Huckabee helps McCain retain Iowa and helps keep the Democrats out of the South. Will the Religious Right stay home if Huckabee's not on the ticket?
3. Mark Sanford of South Carolina drops slightly due to Huckabee's name recognition and religious appeal. Sanford's positives are his youth (for future of party) and his current status of being a Washington outsider.
4. Charlie Crist's stock has dropped considerably because McCain might very well be able to retain Florida for the Republicans without the current governor. And although Crist is only 51, he looks much older.
5. Joe Lieberman stays in his original position.
Will McCain choose someone he is more comfortable with or will he choose the candidate most likely to put states in play despite any real or perceived animosity? I suspect McCain is reasonable enough to overlook any ill feelings between himself and Romney. But will the Religious Right support a rebel and a Mormon? Not sure, but I believe the Religious Right might find more in common with McCain and Romney than they suspect. That is, if they take the time to look.
Other Possibilities:
Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
Jim Gibbons of Nevada
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
JC Watts of Oklahoma
Condoleezza Rice
Colin Powell
Rudy Guiliani of New York
Democrats (Obama)
1. John Edwards has moved up because he helps bridge the gap between Obama, Clinton, and working class whites. Additionally, Edwards is a household name which helps the ticket overcome some worries about Obama's unknown elements. And Edwards totally fits Obama's theme of change because he has changed his view on the Iraq War.
2. Wesley Clark has moved up because he might help the ticket solidify the support of Clinton voters, and his military credentials alone are worthy of vice presidential consideration. But I'm still concerned about his political skills.
3. Tim Kaine of Virginia slips slightly because his unknowns coupled with those of Obama might be too much for America to accept at once. Nonetheless, I believe he is a highly qualified candidate.
4. Jim Webb has dropped considerably due to his views on women, which is not likely to sit well with many Clinton supporters, among others.
5. Hillary Clinton retains the 5th spot due to her political gravitas, but she certainly does not fit Obama's theme of change. And her own comments concerning Obama's presidential qualifications and his possible assassination may preclude her vice presidency.
Other Possibilities:
Al Gore of Tennessee
Evan Bayh of Indiana
Ted Strickland of Ohio
Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania
Joe Biden of Delaware
Chris Dodd of Connecticut
Mark Warner of Virginia
Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
In addition to selecting Edwards for VP, Obama should announce whom he would like to select for his cabinet. This would help calm concerns about what an Obama presidency would look like and generate excitement among the base.
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3 comments:
Very interesting takes on these people.
I could understand McCain choosing Romney especially because Romney might attract more contributions from the fat-cats wing of the Republican Party.
However, Romney wouldn't be much help campaigning otherwise because he comes across as S-H-A-L-L-O-W. Things like equating his sons working Iowa for primary votes with the kind of military service John Q. Nobody has had to perform during two or three tours in Iraq. Break out the barf bags.
Worse, the vision thing. Romney's experience is mostly making money. Thanks to Bush, Cheney and the rest of the GOP Washington mob, a majority of Americans have rediscovered the presidency is about leadership in the sense of public service — not about meeting Wall Street's expectations for quarterly earnings (or tax-cut savings).
Huckabee is probably a better choice for McCain. If they were to actually win the White House, we just might have the worst pair of gaffe-prone loose cannons ever. Between McCain's hyperpatriotic fuddy-duddiness and temper, and Huckabee's sometimes lame sense of humor, watch out.
On the Democratic side, John Edwards would make an excellent V.P. (or president, for that matter). But given his wife's health difficulties and the fact he's been there and done that, plus what must've been wrenching disappointment over how cold the people of his state were toward him in the primary, I have strong doubts about his willingness to run.
If Clinton is willing, she could be Obama's strongest prospective No. 2 — a distinction she earned the hard way. I said could. She would have to stop praising McCain, limit her husband to very limited campaign exposure and keep him under tight rein for four years — a tall order.
Clark is a quick study, smart as hell, has superb leadership qualifications — the absolute best for any noncareer politician since Eisenhower — is very likable and highly effective. Plus, he's as clean as a whistle and not a senator. Finally, his Arkansas roots might be helpful in that part of the country.
SW,
Romney may be shallow but he did win 11 states during the Republican primaries; more than Huckabee.
Point taken about public service, but the core of the Republican Party, the 30% or so that still think Bush is doing a good job, could care less about public service.
Whomever McCain's VP is, the vision has already been set: more of the same, more war, more tax cuts, etc.
Personally, I think Huckabee and the Religious Right are hoping for a McCain loss in November so he can make another run in 2012.
As for Edwards, check out the recent polls from Survey USA
http://www.surveyusa.com/
An Obama/Edwards ticket polls higher than any other combination.
Yes, he's been there and done that, but one cannot ignore such numbers.
At first, I think many would be turned off by Obama/Clinton, but ultimately, I think it would be a landslide. I just don't think it's going to happen and Hillary has a lot to do with that.
I still see Clark as a cabinet member, not VP, but I think Obama needs to seriously consider him.
Whomever McCain's VP is, the vision has already been set: more of the same, more war, more tax cuts, etc.
Absolutely right. That McCain offers little more or different from a de-facto third Bush term is not a baseless talking point; it's the plain truth.
. . . I think Huckabee and the Religious Right are hoping for a McCain loss in November so he can make another run in 2012.
I'm not sure that's true across the RR spectrum, but it wouldn't be surprising if a good many feel that way. Whether that will actually translate into loss of votes for McCain in November remains to be seen. People get ornery and say things like that, but think better of it later on.
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