Thoughts on Joe Biden

What makes Biden a good choice?
First, his experience in the Senate and on the Foreign Relations committee. Second, his Catholic heritage allows the ticket to appeal to a large and significant demographic. But the most important aspect is Biden's ability to attack the Republican ticket. In many respects, he is the perfect Attack Dog for a presidential candidate to have. Does he stick his foot in his mouth? Occasionally, but Biden is a seasoned politician, and he will certainly come across as more likeable than Dick Cheney, Al Gore, and Dan Quayle combined. Biden is perhaps one of the most down to earth politicians you will find in Washington DC. He is the least wealthy of all US Senators, and he regularly commutes between his home in Wilmington, Delaware and DC. Biden may have been in DC a long time, but he is by no means the quintessential Washington insider.

To an extent, Biden helps Obama among older whites and the working class. But let's be honest, people who were planning to vote against Obama because he's different are not likely to change their minds because Biden (or anyone else) is on the ticket. However, Biden is likely to help with voters who were leaning toward Obama but were a little unsure of his capacity to lead.

In my opinion VPs don't matter that much when it comes time to vote for President. And historically speaking, the only recent elections in which a VP carried states that had a significant impact were 1960 (Lyndon Johnson) and 1976 (Walter Mondale). Nonetheless, I believe Biden will have a slight regional impact. To a certain extent, Biden helps the Democrats retain Pennsylvania and possibly gain Virginia. With Biden, I think all of the Northeast including New Hampshire goes to Obama. Outside the Northeast, I think Biden helps the Democrats retain Michigan and possibly gain Ohio, Iowa, or Florida. Biden certainly doesn't hurt in those areas. For the most part, whatever Obama wins in the West (in addition to WA, OR, and CA) can be credited to Obama or Howard Dean.

Having Biden on the ticket (at age 65) certainly doesn't play well for the future of the Democratic Party, but it does leave the possibility for Clinton to run in 2016 or even 2012. But the party may be much different by then and Clinton may very well be out of the loop. Anyway, planning for the future of the party doesn't always work out well. Remember Gore's attempt to carry the mantle?

What about Clinton?
I'm very pleased that Obama did not give in to the pressure to select Clinton as his running mate. If anything represents more of the same, it's the Clinton brand of politics, and in order for change to take place, the cycle of Bush-Clinton had to be broken. Since 1980, there has been a Bush or Clinton as Vice President or President; 28 years is more than enough. Ultimately, Obama has to sink or swim on his own, and I'm sure he realized he couldn't do this with the Clintons tied to his presidency. If Obama loses, he will have done so on his terms and with dignity.

What about McCain?
I still believe McCain's best choice is Romney, but I suspect he might pick Rob Portman of Ohio, or Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania to counter Obama-Biden in the Northeast and Great Lakes region. Portman is somewhat risky because of his ties to the Bush administration, and Ridge is risky because he is Pro-Abortion and he also has ties to the Bush administration. In the end, I believe McCain will decide to go with the person he is most comfortable with. That means his pick is probably Ridge.

Wild-cards include a female VP or even Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. I don't think McCain would be very comfortable with a female running mate, but Lieberman would certainly be an interesting choice. Lieberman would certainly help the ticket appeal to older white Democrats, but the Republican base will reject his more liberal social views (gay rights, gun control, stem cell research, Social Security, etc).

Obama-Biden vs.
McCain-Ridge???