Whatever Happens...

it's not the end of the world. Both Barack Obama and John McCain are good men, and I wish them well in the election tomorrow. It's time to let the people speak and may the best candidate win.

Three Scenarios and One Prediction

Scenario #1: Some Democrats have been talking about an Obama landslide (375+ electoral votes). I seriously doubt that will happen. In my opinion, the best Obama can expect to do is 338 to 200.
Click the link below for map:
http://news.yahoo.com/election#1

Scenario #2: The consensus is that McCain is unlikely to win the election. Nonetheless, McCain's path to victory might look something like this: McCain 273 Obama 265.
Click link below for map:
http://news.yahoo.com/election#2

Scenario #3: The final possibility is a worst case scenario for the American people. One that involves settling the winner by means of the US House of Representatives as dictated by the 12th Amendment.
Click the link below for map:
http://news.yahoo.com/election#3

My prediction: Obama 291 (52% popular vote) McCain 247 (47%).
Obama's path to victory has always been hold Kerry states + Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. I believe he also picks up Nevada and Virginia. This election always has been and still is a close race. In the end, Obama wins by a margin of victory similar to Bush in 2004.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/myprediction

"That One"

I didn't watch enough of the debate to determine a winner, so all I have to go on are polls of people who actually watched it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQqjqb95uNc
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/08/politics/2008debates/main4508430.shtml?source=mostpop_story

From what I've watched and gathered, I suspect both candidates did well but not well enough to move the electorate much in either direction. Today we have exactly 28 days until we decide who the next president will be. May the best candidate win.

By the way, his name is Senator Barack Hussein Obama.

PS. Have you checked your 401(k) recently?

In Retrospect

Following a well-organized and moderated debate (kudos to Jim Lehrer and PBS), I decided to sleep on it before offering any commentary. My initial reaction was that neither candidate did very well. After reading many blog reactions I believe several Obama supporters (including myself) were too critical of his performance. I cannot speak for McCain supporters. To a certain extent I think this is understandable and to be expected, and I don't necessarily believe it's such a bad thing. I believe the most ardent supporters on both sides hold their candidates to stricter, albeit sometimes unrealistic, standards. There's nothing wrong with wanting your candidate to excel, but there really isn't any need for your candidate to try to crush his opponent.

In retrospect, I believe both candidates did what they had to do in the first debate. I think Obama looked, acted, and spoke like someone who could be president. And I believe McCain lived up to (maybe exceeded) expectations considering his reputation for economic issues and the possibility of a debate postponement. And McCain also performed well with regard to national security issues. And as expected, McCain was on the offensive and attacked Obama because he is currently trailing in a majority of national and state polls.

Anyway, I thought both candidates demonstrated knowledge of the issues at hand regardless if anyone agrees with them or not. And I believe McCain, with a few exceptions, was speaking to his base more than Obama. I think this benefits McCain more because this is how Republicans win elections. And that is exactly how they won in 2000 and 2004.

Overall, I thought McCain looked the most uncomfortable on stage. I believe this involves many factors: he's trailing, he realizes he has to play by the Republican playbook to a certain extent, he's admitted he's not very knowledgeable about the economy, and the economy is not very good for a candidate who is from the same party whose had most of the control the last eight years.

Debate Scorecard and winners:
Presentation: Obama
Demeanor: Obama
Knowledge of Issues: Tie
Red Meat: McCain
Expectations: McCain

Overall: Tie
Obama's strengths were overall image and knowledge of issues.
McCain's strengths were meeting expectations and knowledge of issues.

UPDATE: These links are encouraging if you support Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wup4nsIWe8A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALdyDYZiC_8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9fThbEGFBc

In Remembrance

In remembrance and honor of:

Iraqi humans who lost their lives in the Iraq War
Vietnamese humans who lost their lives in the Vietnam War
Japanese humans who lost their lives as the result of two nuclear bombs
African-American humans who lost their lives during 223 years of slavery
Native American humans who lost their lives on the Trail of Tears
All humans who lost their lives in needless wars and experiments

In Remembrance

In remembrance and honor of those who lost their lives on September 11, 2001.

Thoughts on Palin

What seemed like an odd pick at first will work out well for McCain. Palin can be the "pit bull" while McCain takes the high road, and she certainly seems willing and able to fill that role. And Palin appeals to the Republican base in ways that McCain never could. She's as anti-abortion as one can get, and she's a lifetime member of the NRA. Palin also presents the image of a Washington outsider who is reform-minded. And I'll even say she comes across as more authentic than most politicians, but her selection and nomination to the ticket is only historic in that it's the first time Republicans have chosen a woman as vice president. The Democrats broke the gender barrier 24 years ago with Geraldine Ferraro.

The McCain campaign keeps pushing that Palin has more executive experience than Obama and Biden combined. If this is in fact true, then she also has more executive experience than McCain.
Personally, I think experience is over-rated. Bush was the governor of a large state for 6 years and a businessman before that. Look where the economy is now. Cheney had tons of foreign policy experience and so did Rumsfeld. Look where their foreign policy experience has taken us. How did we get to our present state of affairs? Lack of experience or bad judgment? I believe it was the result of bad judgment.